Super Bowl LIX Preview: Chiefs vs. Eagles Match-Up Analysis

We are at that time of the year; February means the Super Bowl. New Orleans hosts the 59th Super Bowl, making it the eleventh time they hosted the big game and the eighth time at the Superdome, the home of the Saints.

New Orleans is tied for the most times they have hosted the Super Bowl with Miami. It is a great city with high energy and good vibes, and if you’re a foodie, it is one of the best in the country.

Matchup

At the start of the year, it wouldn’t have been absurd to predict these two teams in the Super Bowl. The Eagles had a +1400 outright market price, and the Chiefs were favourites at +500.

The NFC was more open and unpredictable, with teams like the 49ers, Lions and Eagles as teams that could have made that run. Washington was the surprise team in the NFC this year but folded in the big game vs the Eagles.

The 49ers got hurt early in the year and underachieved; the Lions got beat as -9.5 favourites against Washington after a tremendous regular season, finishing 1st in the NFC.

So here we are…… The Eagles are the team out of the NFC.

Philadelphia Eagles (17-3)

What an offseason it was for the Eagles. Adding Saquon Barkley proved to be the difference and key to this run. Let’s be honest; they probably wouldn’t be here without the signing.

Barkley Stats and Highlights

2,005 Rushing Yards (1st)

345 Carries (1st)

Averaged 125.3 Rushing Yards Per Game

15 TDs

He needed only 101 yards to break Dickerson’s 40-year-old rushing record of 2,105

442 rushing yards and 5 TDs this post-season

We were lucky enough to witness one of the best seasons ever by a running back, and we may not see that again for a long time.

Other key additions to the team were their first & second-round draft picks, Quinton Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. It was an incredible rookie season for the corners and a need for the Eagles in the offseason. Mitchell finished 8th out of 118 Corners, which PFF graded for his defensive grade, and Cooper DeJean was even better at 3rd.

Both draft picks were key contributors to one of the best defences in the NFL this season, and they prove how important hitting on those early picks is.

Eagles Key Defensive Stats 2024:

Philly ranked top-10 in all major defensive stat categories:

Total yards allowed: 289.3 (1st)

Yards allowed per play: 5.0 (1st)

Rushing yards allowed: 104.4 (10th)

Rushing yards allowed per play: 4.3 (9th)

Passing yards allowed: 184.9 (1st)

Completion % allowed: 61.8 (6th)

Opposing QB rating: 78.5 (2nd)

Average points allowed: 17.9 (6th)

These defensive stats aren’t something most people would be aware of, as they see Barkley running wild and the Tush push highlights. The defence is the reason why they are playing in the Super Bowl.

I wouldn’t be able to complete the defensive section of the article for the Eagles without mentioning the most surprising breakout and now-star LB Zack Baun. This is one of the season's best stories, but not many are talking about it.

Before the Eagles signed him, he played special teams for the Saints for three years and was a backup LB with limited snaps.

The Eagles took a flyer, as they call it, signing him to a 1 year, $3.5-million-dollar contract. I believe they didn’t expect him to start. However, they seemed thin at LB, so Baun immediately got the chance.

He finished third in the NFL with 93 solo tackles, second with five force fumbles, and received the first overall grade from PFF with a 90.2 defence grade.

Talk about a bargain; Baun is up for defensive player of the year and should get a big contract in the off-season, which the Eagles may not be able to match.

Kansas City Chiefs (17-2)

The three-peat is on the line for the Chiefs on Sunday, and they can be the first team ever to complete it. Nobody is surprised the Chiefs are back here. Most who aren’t Chiefs fans didn’t want to see them here again, including myself, but here we are. We can all agree on how impressive this team has been.

We are witnessing a dynasty. We all remember the Patriots years with Brady. Doesn’t this seem very similar?

The Chiefs have reached the conference championship in seven straight seasons, dating back to 2018. They have also played in five Super Bowls in the last six years, winning three and one pending.

Let's not forget that one of those Super Bowl wins was against the Eagles. In Super Bowl 57, the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 in a high-scoring thriller.

Unlike the Eagles, I don’t have a list of good signings in the off-season that made a big difference or a draft that made a huge difference. Of course, Worthy was their most notable pick and did flash at times but was inconsistent.

The Chiefs win as a team, with difference players on offence; they play a solid defensive game and don’t turn the ball over in key situations. They know how to win the close and big games by playing as a well-coached team that makes timely plays.

Chiefs Key Offensive Stats:

When we look at the stats on offence, they aren’t pretty...

Total yards: 323 (16th)

Yards per play: 5.3 (23rd)

Total rushing yards: 103.9 (16th)

Total points: 23.2 (15th)

They limited teams to 19.4 points per game on defence, ranking 4th in the NFL. They were also in the top 10 in total yards allowed and against the run. This is why you don’t just look at stats or offensive numbers; finding ways to win games is more important, especially the big games and being your best when it matters most.

Keys to the game:

Can the Chiefs Limit Saquon Barkley?

It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs defence plays Barkley. If the Eagles were to win this game, we would see a stat line from Barkley of over 100 yards rushing and a touchdown or two. The Eagles are 2-2 on the year when Barkley rushes for under 100 yards. The Chiefs were solid against the run on the year, allowing 106 a game, which was 8th in the NFL.

Can Vic Fangio overcome Mahomes?

Eagles DC Vic Fangio is 0-8 vs Patrick Mahomes. Can he throw something different with coverages to limit and confuse Mahomes to cause turnovers? The team with the most turnovers in this game probably won’t be leaving New Orleans as Super Bowl winners.

Who wins the turnover battle?

If you win the turnover battle in the playoffs, you have a much better chance to win the game. The Eagles were second in the NFL on the year in turnover margin per game at +1.1, 4th in Forced Fumbles and 13th in interceptions.

The Chiefs struggled to create turnovers this season. 11th in the NFL at +0.3 turnover margin per game, 30th in forced fumbles and 16th in interceptions.

Patrick Mahomes had 11 interceptions on the year, improving from last year’s 14, which was the most in his career.

Jalen Hurts had only 5 interceptions this season, a vast improvement from his 15 last year.

The Chiefs led the NFL with the least fumbles of the year, at 0.7 per game.

Eagles were 9th in the NFL and 1.1 fumbles per game.

Betting Market

Chiefs -1.5 Total 49.5

With sports betting as big as ever this year, roughly 1.5 billion is expected to be wagered on the Super Bowl across 38 states. Worldwide, it could reach over 10 billion this year.

There are many fun props to bet on to make the game more exciting. From coin toss to national anthem length and even what colour the Gatorade will be, think of a prop you can probably bet it. I wrote an entire article on those a few weeks ago. Check the blog section on the website.

The Super Bowl attracts many casual bettors, which is why it is one of the most bet-on events in the world each year.

Point Spread

We have seen slight movement on the spread. It opened at -2 and then quickly saw Eagles money come in. It went down to as much as -1 for the Chiefs; however, now sits around most of the market at -1.5

Super Bowl favourites are 27-29 ATS

Underdogs are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls

Chiefs are 9-10 on the year ATS

Eagles are 9-11 on the year ATS

Point Total

The total did not move from 49.5. Even with these two good defences, we almost see 50 points here. The Eagles are coming oR 55 points scored, and the Chiefs 32.

Over is 28-28-1 in the Super Bowl

Super Bowl 57 between these two accumulated 73 points

Final Thoughts

I expect this game to be a very competitive, one-score game that comes down to the end. Just like we saw in Super Bowl 57. The Chiefs are the rightful favourites due to their ability to win the big game, their experience in the Super Bowl and their coaching edge. Also, the chance to make it a three-peat should also be factored into your handicap this weekend.

When you have a quarterback like Mahomes, who has been in this spot so often already in his young career with a 17-3 playoff record, it’s hard not to favour the Chiefs in this game.

No team has won three Super Bowls in a row; the Chiefs can make history on Sunday. If you aren’t a Chiefs fan, I’m sure you will be cheering for the Eagles this weekend.

Enjoy the big game!